Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative girl measures after each episode
MEASURE TASK - MAP - Girl Oct 4 EASY|LESS 100 + 99 Max | | | | 90 + | | | | 80 + X | | | 70 +T | | | | 60 T+ | | | | 50 S+ |S 02 Brittany 03 Brooke XX | | 02 Sophie XXX | 04 Cass 40 XXXX + 05 Dasha XX M| 08 Jamie-Lee X | 06 Emily 07 Shannon 08+1 Tenille 10+3 Romy X | 09+3 Alisha 30 + 09+1 Deanna | 11+3 Cat 13+3 Rhiannon X S| XX |M X | 09+2 Brittney 12+3 Ashlea 16 Aleksandra 20 + 15 Blair | | 14 Vanessa 17 Steph T| 18 Cayla 19 Christina | 10 + | | 20 Kayla | |S 21 Juliana 22 Renee 0 + 98 Min | | | -10 + | | | | 23 Autumn 24 Suzie 25 Urszula -20 + HARD|MORE |
The girls' desirabilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3.
Girl Oct 4 STATISTICS: MEASURE ORDER ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |ENTRY TOTAL TOTAL MODEL| INFIT | OUTFIT |EXACT MATCH| | | |NUMBER SCORE COUNT MEASURE S.E. |MNSQ ZSTD|MNSQ ZSTD| OBS% EXP%|DISPLACE| Girl Oct 4 | |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+--------------| | 30 5 3 100.0A 19.7| .13 -.6| .11 -.6|100.0 90.2| .0| 99 Max | | 3 34 16 47.8 3.0|1.18 .7|1.11 .4| 31.3 44.3| .1| 03 Brooke | | 1 33 17 46.8 3.0| .67 -1.1| .74 -.4| 58.8 46.8| .1| 02 Brittany | | 2 29 17 43.2 3.0|1.03 .2| .77 -.2| 47.1 53.8| .1| 02 Sophie | | 4 27 15 41.9 3.1| .78 -.6| .84 -.1| 53.3 49.5| .1| 04 Cass | | 5 23 14 38.8 3.5|1.03 .2|1.21 .5| 35.7 54.7| .1| 05 Dasha | | 8 8 6 36.9 5.1| .79 -.2| .71 -.1| 66.7 51.9| .1| 08 Jamie-Lee | | 9 18 11 35.6 4.3| .88 -.1| .81 .1| 72.7 56.8| .1| 08+1 Tenille | | 13 15 9 35.1 5.2|1.07 .3| .87 .3| 55.6 61.7| .1| 10+3 Romy | | 6 20 14 34.9 3.8| .93 .0| .75 .0| 57.1 56.0| .1| 06 Emily | | 7 19 13 34.2 4.0| .52 -1.1| .58 -.2| 69.2 61.1| .1| 07 Shannon | | 12 14 9 32.4 5.3| .58 -.7| .41 -.1| 66.7 64.3| .0| 09+3 Alisha | | 10 4 4 30.1 6.7|1.17 .5| .84 .1| 50.0 52.8| .1| 09+1 Deanna | | 14 13 9 29.5 5.4| .88 .0| .81 .3| 55.6 65.4| .0| 11+3 Cat | | 16 12 8 28.6 6.1|1.94 1.3|1.63 .9| 62.5 70.5| .0| 13+3 Rhiannon| | 11 2 3 22.7 9.7| .18 -1.0| .19 -1.0|100.0 67.5| .1| 09+2 Brittney| | 19 7 5 21.6 8.2| .79 .0| .77 .3| 60.0 75.9| .0| 16 Aleksandra| | 15 10 8 21.4 5.8| .42 -1.1| .31 -.2| 75.0 65.2| .0| 12+3 Ashlea | | 18 8 6 20.0 6.6|1.46 .9|1.39 .7| 66.7 67.8| .0| 15 Blair | | 17 8 7 16.7 6.0|1.22 .6|1.66 .9| 42.9 59.3| .0| 14 Vanessa | | 20 6 5 15.6 7.5| .64 -.5| .49 .0| 60.0 64.2| .0| 17 Steph | | 21 5 4 13.5 8.1|1.21 .5| .83 .4| 50.0 64.9| .0| 18 Cayla | | 22 5 4 13.5 8.1|1.21 .5| .83 .4| 50.0 64.9| .0| 19 Christina | | 23 4 4 6.7 8.6| .20 -.9| .14 -.5|100.0 78.0| .0| 20 Kayla | | 24 3 3 .5 9.8| .61 -.3| .51 .1| 33.3 53.2| -.1| 21 Juliana | | 25 3 3 .5 9.8| .61 -.3| .51 .1| 33.3 53.2| -.1| 22 Renee | | 29 0 2 .0A 19.3|3.71 2.0|9.02 2.8| 50.0 81.3| -56.1| 98 Min | | 26 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 23 Autumn | | 27 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 24 Suzie | | 28 1 2 -17.4 13.8| .23 -.3| .25 -.4|100.0 79.0| -.1| 25 Urszula | |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+--------------| | MEAN 11.3 7.5 23.9 7.7| .88 -.1| .99 .1| 63.4 63.7| -1.9| | | P.SD 9.8 4.9 23.1 4.4| .67 .7|1.54 .7| 21.3 11.3| 10.1| | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
The Batchelor Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. Series 6 started on August 15, 2018.
Each girl (contestant) is a row in the data matrix. Each episode, or part of an episode, is a column (item, task) in the data matrix. In the first episode, 25 girls met batchelor Nick Cummins. 3 girls were eliminated. 1 girl, Brooke, was awarded the "key to the batch pad" for a private meeting with Nick.
In most episodes, the eliminated girls are score 0. Other girls are scored in higher categories depending on the attention they received from Nick. Since the scoring varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: The Batchelor Australia (series 6).
The girls are listed by name. The number immediately preceding each name is their order of elimination, counting backwards. There are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Minimum" (who is less desirable than anyone) and "Maximum" (who is more desirable than anyone). These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Batchelor episodes.
The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "1-Meet". "1" indicates the week number. "Meet" indicates the type of event. In addition to a column for each episode, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same), Maximum and Minimum. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active girl in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their desirability. Nick is liking some more, and others less. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the XFILE= as (RESIDUAL or 1-RESIDUAL) for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.
After each episode, the outcomes are scored based on the Nick's opinions and actions, and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=10 and other control instructions have been added to rescale the measures into more friendly numbers.
&INST Title= "batchelor-aus-2018.xls" ; Excel file created or last modified: 10/4/2018 9:26:55 PM ; Sheet1 ; Excel Cases processed = 30 ; Excel Variables processed = 24 ITEM1 = 1 ; Starting column of item responses NI = 18 ; Number of items NAME1 = 20 ; Starting column for person label in data record NAMLEN = 14 ; Length of person label XWIDE = 1 ; Matches the widest data value observed ISGROUPS = 0 ; Partial Credit model: in case items have different rating scales IWEIGHT = 5W4 ; for "Win" USCALE = 10 ; high score = high ability, rescaled for 0-100 = 10 logits UDECIMALS = 1 PAFILE=* 29 0 ; anchor minimum performance at 0 30 100 ; anchor maximum performance at 100 * CONVERGE=B LCONV=.01 RCONV=.1 FREQ = HARD ; for the Wright Person-Item Map LESS = MORE MORE = LESS RARE = EASY TITLE = Batchelor Australia 2018 - October 4 PERSON = Girl Oct 4 ITEM = TASK LINELENGTH = 120 TFILE=* 16.3 17.1 * CODES = "01234 " ; matches the data TOTALSCORE = Yes ; Include extreme responses in reported scores ; Person Label variables: columns in label: columns in line @Name = 1E13 ; $C20W13 &END ; Item labels follow: columns in label 0-Pre ; Item 1 : 1-1 1-Meet ; Item 2 : 2-2 2-Heli ; Item 3 : 3-3 3-Golf ; Item 4 : 4-4 4-Arrows ; Item 5 : 5-5 5-Family ; Item 6 : 6-6 6-Campout ; Item 7 : 7-7 7-Pre ; Item 8 : 8-8 7-Bounce ; Item 9 : 9-9 8-Toga ; Item 10 : 10-10 9-Lies ; Item 11 : 11-11 10-Cars ; Item 12 : 12-12 11-Obs ; Item 13 : 13-13 12-SWAY ; Item 14 : 14-14 13-Bowls ; Item 15 : 15-15 14-Home ; Item 16 : 16-16 15-Dates ; Item 17 : 17-17 Finale ; Item 18 : 18-18 END NAMES 1313132 2242113310 02 Brittany 1322131 1123114210 02 Sophie 1433141 243213110 03 Brooke 1323112 22313120 04 Cass 1313321 1212210 05 Dasha 1212121 2311120 06 Emily 1332122 111110 07 Shannon 121310 08 Jamie-Lee 1222121 3220 08+1 Tenille 1120 09+1 Deanna 110 09+2 Brittney 1222122 20 09+3 Alisha 1232222 10 10+3 Romy 1222211 20 11+3 Cat 1212121 0 12+3 Ashlea 1212123 0 13+3 Rhiannon 1121120 14 Vanessa 121220 15 Blair 12220 16 Aleksandra 12120 17 Steph 1220 18 Cayla 1220 19 Christina 1210 20 Kayla 120 21 Juliana 120 22 Renee 10 23 Autumn 10 24 Suzie 10 25 Urszula 0 0 98 Min 2 2 1 99 Max |
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