Correct, Uve. Table 2.7 is much closer to the empirical data.
The problem is inference ....
Past-sample-dependent inference: If you expect the future person to be from a person sample exactly like the past sample (distribution, ability level, misfit, etc.) , then base your decisions on Table 2.7.
Past-sample-distribution-dependent inference: If you expect the future person to be from a person sample similar to the past sample (distribution, ability level, but not misfit) , then base your decisions on Table 2.5.
Past-sample-independent-as-possible: If you have no information about the future person, except that the latent variable will be the same as for the past sample, then base your decisions on Table 2.2.
Does the future repeat the past? Or is the future something entirely new? The truth is usually somewhere between these extremes. |