NCAA College Men's Basketball:
Prediction History

For current rankings, see Jeff Sagarin's rating index

Logit Success Record

Games Played on Number of Games Successful Predictions Success %
all games
Wins at home %
Predicted from games thru
03-29 1 0 0% 0%03-25
03-27 2 2 100% 0%03-25
03-25 2 1 50% 0%03-23
03-23 2 0 0% 0%03-21
03-21 2 2 100% 0%03-20
03-20 2 2 100% 0%03-18
03-19 4 3 75% 0%03-18
03-18 6 3 50% 100%03-17
03-17 2 1 50% 50%03-16
03-16 3 1 33% 33%03-15
03-15 5 4 80% 80%03-14
03-14 8 3 38% 100%03-13
03-13 8 7 88% 0%03-11
03-12 16 11 69% 100%03-11
03-11 16 10 62% 0%03-10
03-10 16 13 81% 81%03-07
03-07 4 4 100% 0%03-05
03-06 23 13 57% 0%03-05
03-05 34 26 76% 83%03-04
03-04 41 32 78% 58%03-03
03-03 22 15 68% 0%03-02
03-02 11 8 73% 0%03-01
03-01 7 6 86% 0%02-28
02-28 32 21 66% 81%02-27
02-27 110 78 71% 71%02-25
02-26 25 18 72% 68%02-25
02-25 49 33 67% 63%02-24
02-24 31 20 65% 68%02-23
02-23 14 10 71% 71%02-22
02-22 19 15 79% 63%02-21
02-21 19 16 84% 74%02-20
02-20 126 85 67% 65%02-18
02-19 10 8 80% 50%02-18
02-18 60 42 70% 55%02-16
02-17 44 34 77% 70%02-16
02-16 19 18 95% 63%02-15
02-15 33 24 73% 48%02-14
02-14 17 11 65% 53%02-13
02-13 128 91 71% 69%02-11
02-12 10 8 80% 80%02-11
02-11 65 41 63% 69%02-10
02-10 49 38 78% 61%02-09
02-09 10 8 80% 50%02-08
02-08 37 26 70% 68%02-07
02-07 16 12 75% 69%02-06
02-06 130 77 59% 52%02-04
02-05 7 6 86% 43%02-04
02-04 60 41 68% 68%02-03
02-03 45 33 73% 62%02-02
02-02 16 11 69% 62%02-01
02-01 39 25 64% 56%01-30
01-31 17 13 76% 88%01-30
01-30 132 106 80% 63%01-28
01-29 7 7 100% 43%01-28
01-28 62 44 71% 66%01-27
01-27 49 36 73% 70%01-26
01-26 7 5 71% 43%01-25
01-25 37 32 86% 72%01-24
01-24 17 12 71% 71%01-23
01-23 131 90 69% 63%01-21
01-22 7 3 43% 29%01-21
01-21 60 41 68% 58%01-20
01-20 41 29 71% 56%01-19
01-19 17 13 76% 59%01-18
01-18 42 33 79% 69%01-17
01-17 13 10 77% 62%01-16
01-16 129 82 64% 61%01-13
01-15 8 7 88% 88%01-13
01-14 55 38 69% 64%01-13
01-13 53 45 85% 62%01-12
01-12 21 13 62% 43%01-10
01-11 27 19 70% 59%01-10
01-10 19 14 74% 68%01-09
01-09 123 88 72% 67%01-07
01-08 12 7 58% 42%01-07
01-07 59 44 75% 66%01-05
01-06 41 31 76% 59%01-05
01-05 18 9 50% 82%01-03
01-04 67 45 67% 64%01-03
01-03 16 12 75% 73%01-01
01-02 113 82 73% 65%01-01
12-31 7 6 86% 86%12-30
12-30 74 55 74% 75%12-27
12-29 61 51 84% 79%12-27
12-28 47 35 74% 70%12-27
12-27 28 19 68% 76%12-20
12-26 5 2 40% 60%12-20
12-24 1 1 100% 100%12-20
12-23 31 24 77% 66%12-20
12-22 68 53 78% 82%12-20
12-21 47 37 79% 71%12-20
12-20 18 14 78% 78%12-13
12-19 88 67 76% 68%12-13
12-18 9 7 78% 62%12-13
12-17 25 23 92% 92%12-13
12-16 14 9 64% 57%12-13
12-15 20 11 55% 75%12-13
12-14 10 10 100% 90%12-13
12-13 6 5 83% 80%12-07
12-12 102 73 72% 74%12-07
12-11 12 9 75% 100%12-07
12-10 18 15 83% 78%12-07
12-09 31 21 68% 81%12-07
12-08 44 31 70% 72%12-07

  1. For NCAA College Men's Basketball: Top 25 Measures and Rankings
  2. For Men's College Basketball: Top 300 teams rankings
  3. For Men's College Basketball: Logit prediction success
  4. For College Football predictions & Top 25 rankings
  5. For College Football all 200+ rankings

How to predict

Logit measures predict as follows:
(a) Note down the BCUs of the guest team.
(b) Note down the BCUs of the home team.
(c) Add the home court advantage BCUs to the home team.
(d) The team with more BCUs will win (guest or home+advantage)
(e) Teams in the complete ranking will win over unranked teams.

Linear Measures produced by Mike Linacre


This is an illustration of measurement using the method of paired comparisons. Leon L. Thurstone, of the University of Chicago, perceived the necessity that measures be independent of sampling and testing specifics. Measures based on paired comparisons meet this criterion. Bradley and Terry proposed this model but from a descriptive, rather than measurement, perspective. Consequently, they noticed, but did not capitalize on, the linearity of the measures produced. Georg Rasch perceived the linearity of measures produced from ordinal data by logit-linear models. Since mathematical expression of such models obscures their immediate utility and ease of application, they are illustrated here by a simple paired comparison analysis of NCAA game outcomes. Current applications of this method include the pricing of medical procedures and determining the relative severity of crimes.

Thurstone, L.L. The method of paired comparisons for social values. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1927b, 21, 384-400.

Bradley, R.A. and Terry, M E. Rank analysis of incomplete block designs I: The method of paired comparisons. Biometrika, 1952, 39, 324-345.


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