NCAA Football 1999-2000
Final Top 25 Measures and Ranking

For current rankings, see Jeff Sagarin's rating index

Linear
Rank
01-05
Rank
1998
Measures
in FCUs
01-05
College Football Team
(won-loss: opponent strength / best win / worst loss) thru 01-04
AP Rank
(BCS)
01-04
ESPN Rank
01-04
12 1044FLORIDA ST (12-0 783/983/0) 1 (1)1
221 1014NEBRASKA (12-1 768/927/878) 3 (3)2
313 999MICHIGAN (10-2 810/1000/801) 5 (8)5
445 990MICHIGAN ST (10-2 799/947/885) 7 (9)7
529 983VIRGINIA TECH (11-1 717/865/1044) 2 (2)3
611 979KANSAS ST (11-1 694/878/1066) 6 (6)6
731 961MARSHALL (13-0 581/844/0) 10 (12)10
84 948WISCONSIN (10-2 701/938/649) 4 (7)4
937 946ALABAMA (10-3 821/934/792) 8 (4)8
1015 941PENN ST (10-3 786/932/769) 11 (11)11
111 914TENNESSEE (9-3 770/998/887) 9 (5)9
1238 910MISSISSIPPI ST (10-2 698/801/887) 1312
1349 900SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (9-3 697/854/899) 1413
143 882FLORIDA (9-4 773/862/894) 12 (10)14
1518 880MIAMI FLA (9-4 760/845/854) 1515
1636 860OREGON (9-3 732/821/754) 1918
17108 853ILLINOIS (8-4 765/1051/708) 2425
189 847TEXAS A&M (8-4 745/896/766) 23 (14)20
1975 844LOUISIANA TECH (8-3 679/998/792)   
2086 842UTAH (9-3 715/873/740)   
2127 835ARKANSAS (8-4 724/878/687) 1719
2224 833PURDUE (7-5 782/938/832) 25 
2312 832GEORGIA (8-4 727/864/697) 1616
2414 826TEXAS (9-5 754/962/688) 21 (15)23
2510 825GEORGIA TECH (8-4 745/780/801) 2021
Home field advantage = 52 FCUs for games up through 01-04

  1. For all 200+ College Football rankings
  2. NCAA College Men's Basketball Measures and Rankings
WeekendGamesHome winsHome win % Predicted winsPredicted win %
Week 1 5 3 60 2 40
Week 2 81 52 64 62 76
Week 3 93 68 73 70 75
Week 4 96 59 61 67 69
Week 5 97 58 59 71 73
Week 6 102 60 58 74 72
Week 7 103 70 67 79 76
Week 8 101 54 53 71 70
Week 9 102 57 55 68 66
Week 10 107 60 56 83 77
Week 11 101 60 59 77 76
Week 12 104 60 57 74 71
Week 13 92 49 53 69 75
Week 14 29 20 68 20 68
Week 15 9 3 50 7 77
Week 16 3 3 100 2 66
Week 17 2 - - 0 0
Bowls 23 2 25 10 43


Syracuse 20-13
All Bowl Forecasts & Scores
Mike's success 43%; CNN success 39%. Ugh!
Bowl Location Date Teams Forecast Winner
LAS VEGAS BOWL Las Vegas, Nevada Dec. 18, 1999 Fresno State (739) vs.
Utah (833)
Mike: Utah
CNN: Utah
Utah 17-16
MOBILE ALABAMA BOWL Mobile, Alabama Dec. 22, 1999,
7:30 p.m. ET
TCU (703) vs.
East Carolina (848)
Mike: East Carolina
CNN: East Carolina
TCU 28-14
JEEP ALOHA BOWL Honolulu, Hawaii Dec. 25, 1999,
3:30 p.m. ET
Arizona State (760) vs.
Wake Forest (740)
Mike: Arizona State
CNN: Wake Forest
Wake Forest 23-3
JEEP OAHU BOWL Honolulu, Hawaii Dec. 25, 1999,
8:30 p.m, ET
Oregon State (778) vs.
Hawaii (H-749)
Mike: Oregon State
CNN: Oregon State
Hawaii 23-17
MOTOR CITY BOWL Pontiac, Michigan Dec. 27, 1999,
2:30 p.m. ET
Marshall (946) vs.
BYU (837)
Mike:Marshall
CNN: Marshall
Marshall 21-3
SYLVANIA ALAMO BOWL San Antonio, Texas Dec. 28, 1999,
7:30 p.m. ET
Penn State (906) vs.
Texas A&M (H-935)
Mike: Texas A&M
CNN: Texas A&M
Penn State 24-0
MUSIC CITY BOWL Nashville, Tennessee Dec. 29, 1999,
5 p.m. ET
Kentucky (H-814) vs.
Syracuse (711)
Mike: Kentucky
CNN: Kentucky
CULLIGAN HOLIDAY BOWL San Diego, California Dec. 29, 1999,
8 p.m, ET
Kansas State (973) vs.
Washington (814)
Mike: Kansas State
CNN: Kansas State
Kansas State 24-20
HUMANITARIAN BOWL Boise, Idaho Dec. 30, 1999,
3 p.m. ET
Louisville (758) vs.
Boise State (H-814)
Mike: Boise St
CNN: Louisville
Boise St 34-31
MICRONPC.COM BOWL Miami, Florida Dec. 30, 1999,
7 p.m. ET
Virginia (841) vs.
Illinois (823)
Mike: Virginia
CNN: Virginia
Illinois 63-21
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL Atlanta Georgia Dec. 30,1999,
7:30 p.m. ET
Clemson (811) vs.
Mississippi State (890)
Mike: Mississippi State
CNN: Clemson
Mississippi St 17-7
WELLS FARGO SUN BOWL El Paso, Texas Dec. 31, 1999,
2:15 p.m. ET
Oregon (844) vs.
Minnesota (835)
Mike: Oregon
CNN: Minnesota
Oregon 24-20
INSIGHT.COM BOWL Tucson, Arizona Dec. 31, 1999,
1:30 p.m. ET
Colorado (763) vs.
Boston College (799)
Mike: Boston College
CNN: Boston College
Colorado 62-28
AXA/EQUITABLE LIBERTY BOWL Memphis, Tennessee Dec. 31,1999,
5 p.m. ET
Southern Miss (897) vs.
Colorado State (840)
Mike: Southern Miss
CNN: Southern Miss
Southern Miss 23-17
SANFORD INDEPENDENCE BOWL Shreveport, Louisiana Dec. 31, 1999,
8:30 p.m. ET
Mississippi (786) vs.
Oklahoma (796)
Mike: Oklahoma
CNN: Oklahoma
Mississippi 27-25
SOUTHWESTERN BELL COTTON BOWL Dallas, Texas Jan. 1, 2000,
11 a.m. ET
Texas (917-H) vs.
Arkansas (802)
Mike: Texas
CNN: Texas
Arkansas 27-6
OUTBACK BOWL Tampa, Florida Jan. 1, 2000,
11 a.m. ET
Purdue (845) vs.
Georgia (809)
Mike: Purdue
CNN: Purdue
Georgia 28-5
TOYOTA GATOR BOWL Jacksonville, Florida Jan. 1, 2000,
12:30 p.m. ET
Miami (860) vs.
Georgia Tech (850)
Mike: Miami
CNN: Miami
Miami 28-13
COMPUSA FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL Orlando, Florida Jan. 1, 2000,
1 p.m. ET
Michigan State (953) vs.
Florida (959-H)
Mike: Florida
CNN: Michigan State
Michigan State 37-34
ROSE BOWL Pasadena, California Jan. 1, 2000,
5 p.m. ET
Wisconsin (918) vs.
Stanford (898-H)
Mike: Wisconsin
CNN: Wisconsin
Wisconsin 17-9
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL Miami, Florida Jan. 1, 2000,
8 p.m. ET
Michigan (955) vs.
Alabama (966)
Mike: Alabama
CNN: Michigan
Michigan 35-34
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL Tempe, Arizona Jan. 2, 2000,
7:30 p.m. ET
Nebraska (1007) vs.
Tennessee (935)
Mike: Nebraska
CNN: Nebraska
Nebraska 31-21
NOKIA SUGAR BOWL New Orleans, Louisiana Jan. 4, 2000,
8 p.m. ET
Florida State (1028) vs.
Virginia Tech (978)
Mike: Florida State
CNN: Virginia Tech
Florida State 46-29

    Notes:
  • Home field advantage is worth extra FCUs (Football Competency Units). These are added to the home team's FCUs.
  • An advantage of 70 FCU's gives a team "2-to-1 on" odds of winning.
  • Based on Rasch analysis of published results of Division 1AA and 1A games available at time of computation.
  • Intended solely as the demonstration of a measurement method.
  • Game scores were provided by a variety of Media and Internet sources, including ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN, AP, Yahoo and the websites of the schools themselves. AP and ESPN rankings are provided by those organizations.

Linear Measures produced by Mike Linacre


The Health Care Finance Administration (HCFA) has recently approved Rasch "paired comparison" methodology for the identification of misvalued procedures, see Total Physician Work. Leon L. Thurstone perceived the necessity that measures be independent of sampling and testing specifics. Measures based on paired comparisons meet this criterion. Bradley and Terry proposed this model but from a descriptive, rather than measurement, perspective. Consequently, they noticed, but did not capitalize on, the linearity of the measures produced. Georg Rasch perceived the linearity of measures produced from ordinal data by logit-linear models.

Since mathematical expression of such models obscures their immediate utility and ease of application, they are illustrated here by a simple paired comparison analysis of NCAA game outcomes. Obvious advantages include:
(a) all teams are ranked, not just the favored few
(b) all teams are located on a linear measurement scale
(c) all teams are given equal attention
(d) the data are easy to obtain, even for non-experts
(e) rare, idiosyncratic results can be indentified, and, even if left unremedied, produce minimal distortion.
(f) it is noticeable, in these data, that the conventional ranking services pay too much attention to won-loss record - and even particular wins and losses (the immediate details), and not enough to strength of schedule (the big picture).

Thurstone, L.L. The method of paired comparisons for social values. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1927, 21, 384-400.

Bradley, R.A. and Terry, M E. Rank analysis of incomplete block designs I: The method of paired comparisons. Biometrika, 1952, 39, 324-345.


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