Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative guy measures after each episode
Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative guy measures after each episode
MEASURE TASK - MAP - Guy Oct 10
EASY|LESS
100 + Max
|
|
|
|T
|
90 +
|
|
| Bill
|
80 +
|
|
|
| Charlie
|
70 +S
|
|
|
|
|
60 +
|
|
T|
X S|
50 +
X M| Cheyne Damien Dan Daniel Danny Ivan Jules Nathan
Peter Robert Taite Todd Wesley
X S|M
T|
|
|
40 +
|
|
|
|
30 +
|
|
| Paddy
|S
|
20 +
|
|
|
|
|
10 + 17-Ben 18-Brendan
|
|
|
|
0 +T Min
HARD|MORE
|
The guys' desirabilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3.
Guy Oct 10 STATISTICS: MEASURE ORDER --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |ENTRY TOTAL TOTAL MODEL| INFIT | OUTFIT |EXACT MATCH| | Win | | |NUMBER SCORE COUNT MEASURE S.E. |MNSQ ZSTD|MNSQ ZSTD| OBS% EXP%|DISPLACE|Prob%| Guy Oct 10| |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----|-----------| | 20 4 2 100.0A 14.3| .72 -1.2| .72 -1.2|100.0 58.2| 18.9| | Max | | 2 6 3 84.2 10.8| .36 -.6| .33 -.9|100.0 74.2| .1| 45.5| Bill | | 4 5 3 73.4 10.6| .06 -2.4| .08 -.8|100.0 68.9| .2| 22.1| Charlie | | 5 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Cheyne | | 6 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Damien | | 7 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Dan | | 8 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Daniel | | 9 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Danny | | 10 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Ivan | | 11 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Jules | | 12 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Nathan | | 14 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Peter | | 15 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Robert | | 16 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Taite | | 17 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Todd | | 18 4 3 49.2 25.3| .00 -1.5| .00 -1.4|100.0 95.7| .1| 2.5| Wesley | | 13 3 3 25.4 10.5| .06 -2.5| .09 -.7|100.0 67.8| .0| 0.2| Paddy | | 1 1 2 9.1 14.8| .23 -.4| .24 -.3|100.0 79.8| .0| | 17-Ben |<-- Eliminated | 3 1 2 9.1 14.8| .23 -.4| .24 -.3|100.0 79.8| .0| | 18-Brendan| | 19 0 2 .0A 14.7| .95 .0| .93 .0| 50.0 62.4| -17.2| | Min | |------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+-----|-----------| | MEAN 3.6 2.8 47.0 21.0| .13 -1.4| .13 -1.2| 97.5 86.8| .1| | | | P.SD 1.4 .4 22.9 6.0| .26 .6| .25 .5| 10.9 13.0| 5.7| | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
The Batchelorette Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. It started on October 10, 2018.
Each guy (contestant) is a row in the data mAli Oetjen. 2 guys were eliminated. 1 guy, Bill, was awarded the "wild rose" to preempt another guy's date with Ali.
In most episodes, the eliminated guys are score 0. Other guys are scored in higher categories depending on the attention they received from Nick. Since the scoring varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: The Batchelorette Australia (series 4).
The guys are listed by name. The number immediately preceding each name is their order of elimination, counting backwards. There are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Minimum" (who is less desirable than anyone) and "Maximum" (who is more desirable than anyone). These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Batchelorette episodes.
The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "1-Meet". "1" indicates the week number. "Meet" indicates the type of event. In addition to a column for each episode, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same), Maximum and Minimum. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active guy in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their desirability. Ali is liking some more, and others less. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the Winsteps XFILE= as (RESIDUAL or 1-RESIDUAL) for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.
After each episode, the outcomes are scored based on the Ali's opinions and actions, and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=10 and other control instructions have been added to rescale the measures into more friendly numbers.
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