Measuring Romance with Rasch: Batchelorette Australia, 2019, (Series 5)

Batchelorette Aus Guy Cumulative Measures
Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative Guy measures after each episode

 

MEASURE EPISODE - MAP - Guy Nov 13
           HARD|MORE
   60          +T
               |
               |  x-Ryan
               |
               |S Carlin     x-Ciarran  x-Jackson
               |  Timm
               |  x-Alex     x-Haydn    x-Matt
               |  x-Adam     x-Jamie    x-Niranga  x-Scot     x-Tom
   50       X M+M x-Mitch    x-Warwick
               |  x-Glenn
               |
               |
               |  x-Jesse
               |S
               |  x-Kayde
   40          +
               |  x-Jess
               |T x-Josh     x-Oliver
               |
               |
               |
               |
               |
   30          +
           EASY|LESS

The Guys' desirabilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3.


         Guy Nov 13 STATISTICS:  MEASURE ORDER
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ENTRY   TOTAL  TOTAL           MODEL|   INFIT  |  OUTFIT  |EXACT MATCH|Win%|           |
|NUMBER  SCORE  COUNT  MEASURE  S.E. |MNSQ  ZSTD|MNSQ  ZSTD| OBS%  EXP%|Prob| Guy Nov 13|
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+----+-----------|
|     3     44     29    57.4     1.9| .55  -.63| .23 -1.16| 79.3  73.9|    | x-Ryan    |
|     8     49     27    55.7     1.6|2.56  1.90| .59  -.22| 74.1  77.6|    | x-Ciarran |
|     1     56     31    55.6     1.5|1.01   .20| .38  -.76| 67.7  70.6| 53 | Carlin    |
|     4     56     30    55.2     1.4| .60  -.69| .29  -.93| 73.3  71.7|    | x-Jackson |
|     2     68     31    53.5     1.2|2.08  1.99| .45  -.54| 74.2  70.9| 47 | Timm      |
|     9     66     27    52.4     1.3|1.37   .84| .34  -.60| 77.8  77.9|    | x-Haydn   |
|     6     72     29    52.2     1.2| .80  -.32| .19 -1.09| 75.9  73.8|    | x-Matt    |
|     5     73     29    52.0     1.2| .58  -.95| .16 -1.19| 79.3  73.8|    | x-Alex    |
|     7     73     28    51.4     1.3| .66  -.64| .23  -.88| 82.1  75.9|    | x-Jamie   |
|    12     59     25    51.2     1.4|1.30   .66| .22  -.74| 80.0  81.6|    | x-Scot    |
|    13     60     25    51.0     1.4| .67  -.42| .12 -1.06| 84.0  81.6|    | x-Tom     |
|    14     52     24    50.9     1.6|1.19   .49| .15  -.86| 87.5  84.6|    | x-Niranga |
|    11     61     25    50.8     1.4| .36 -1.19| .07 -1.27| 92.0  81.7|    | x-Adam    |
|    19     33     22    50.5     2.5| .63  -.01| .38  -.26| 90.9  91.5|    | x-Warwick |
|    17     46     23    49.7     1.9|1.45   .74| .14  -.85| 91.3  88.1|    | x-Mitch   |
|    10     79     26    48.2     1.8| .26 -1.05| .06 -1.40| 88.5  79.7|    | x-Glenn   |
|    15     66     24    45.1     2.9| .12 -1.10| .03 -1.55| 91.7  86.2|    | x-Jesse   |
|    16     56     23    42.5     3.8| .09 -1.20| .03 -1.64| 95.7  88.1|    | x-Kayde   |
|    18     42     22    39.7     4.8| .05 -1.51| .03 -1.83|100.0  88.8|    | x-Jess    |
|    20     39     21    37.4     6.3| .27  -.38| .05 -1.73| 95.2  91.6|    | x-Josh    |
|    21     39     21    37.4     6.3| .27  -.38| .05 -1.73| 95.2  91.6|    | x-Oliver  |
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+----+-----------|
| MEAN    56.6   25.8    49.5     2.3| .80   -.2| .20  -1.1| 84.6  81.0|    |           |
| P.SD    12.7    3.2     5.7     1.6| .64   1.0| .15    .5|  8.8   7.0|    |           |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Batchelorette Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. Series 5 started on October 9, 2019.

Each Guy (contestant) is a row in the data matrix. Each episode, or part of an episode, is a column (item, task) in the data matrix. In the first episode, 20 Guys met Batchelorette Angie Kent. 2 Guys were eliminated. 1 Guy, Carlin was awarded the Yellor Rose" for 24 hours with Angie. Later, an intruder, Ryan, joined the Guys.

At the end of each episode, there is a Rose Ceremony. The Guys are scored by the order in which they receive roses. The lowest ranked are eliminated from future episodes. Since the number of Guys varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: The Batchelorette Australia (series 5).

The Guys are listed by name in the Excel spreadsheet. There are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Loser" (who is less desirable than anyone) and "Winner" (who is more desirable than anyone). These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Batchelorette episodes.

The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "Ep. 1". "1" indicates the episode number. In addition to a column for each episode, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same, weighted 20), Winner and Loser. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active Guy in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their desirability. Angie is liking some more, and others less. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the XFILE= as EXPECTATION for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.

After each episode, the outcomes are scored based on the Angie's assignment of roses and other actions, and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=10 and other control instructions have been added to rescale the measures into more friendly numbers.


&INST
Title= "batchelorette-aus-2019.xls"
; Excel file created or last modified: 11/14/2019 5:44:09 PM
; Sheet1
;     Excel Cases processed = 23
; Excel Variables processed = 19
ITEM1 = 1 ; Starting column of item responses
NI = 13 ; Number of items
NAME1 = 28 ; Starting column for person label in data record
NAMLEN = 10 ; Length of person label
XWIDE = 2 ; Matches the widest data value observed

; extra control variables
ISGROUPS = 0 ; Partial Credit model: Episodes have different rankings
STKEEP=No ; when guys drop out, drop out their ratings
IWEIGHT = 6W4 ; for "Win" and team events
USCALE = -10 ; low score = high desirability, rescaled for 0-100 = 10 logits
UDECIMALS = 1
PAFILE=*
23 0    ; anchor minimum performance at 0
22 100  ; anchor maximum performance at 100
*
CONVERGE=B
LCONV=.005
RCONV=.05
FREQ = HARD ; for the Wright Person-Item Map
LESS = MORE
MORE = LESS
RARE = EASY
TITLE = Batchelorette Aus 2019 Nov 13
PERSON = Guy Nov 13
ITEM = EPISODE
LINELENGTH = 120
; PSELECT={A-Z}  ; only analyze active guys
STKEEP=NO ; drop out eliminated rankings
TFILE=*
IDELETE=+2    ; report only one item
PDELETE=22-23 ; delete dummy extremes
MAXPAG=60
16.3
MAXPAG=100
17.1
IDELETE=
*

CODES = "  . 0 1 101112131415161718192 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 " ; matches the data
CODERANGE = 21 - 21
TOTALSCORE = Yes ; Include extreme responses in reported scores
; Person Label variables: columns in label: columns in line
@Name = 1E9 ; $C28W9
&END ; Item labels follow: columns in label
Pre..20 ; Item 1 : 1-2
Ep. 1 ; Item 2 : 3-4
Ep. 2 ; Item 3 : 5-6
Ep. 3 ; Item 4 : 7-8
Ep. 4 ; Item 5 : 9-10
Ep. 5 ; Item 6 : 11-12
Ep.6 ; Item 7 : 13-14
Ep.7 ; Item 8 : 15-16
Ep.8 ; Item 9 : 17-18
Ep.9 ; Item 10 : 19-20
Ep10 ; Item 11 : 21-22
Ep.11 ; Item 12 : 23-24
Win..0 ; Item 13 : 25-26
END NAMES
1 1 1 5 9 7 2 2 3 2 3 1 0  Carlin
1 152 6 1 9 4 3 1 3 2 2 1  Timm
1 . . 3 6 2 3 3 2 1 1 3    x-Ryan
1 3 2 1 4 5 7 1 5 4 4      x-Jackson
1 113 105 4 6 3 6 5        x-Alex
1 2 2 8 128 8 3 4 5        x-Matt
1 9 2 9 113 9 3 7          x-Jamie
1 123 2 2 1 1 8            x-Ciarran
1 5 3 153 6 5 9            x-Haydn
1 133 11121010             x-Glenn
1 103 7 1011               x-Adam
1 142 4 8 11               x-Scot
1 6 3 137 11               x-Tom
1 4 3 1213                 x-Niranga
1 163 1413                 x-Jesse
1 173 16                   x-Kayde
1 7 3 16                   x-Mitch
1 184                      x-Jess
1 8 5                      x-Warwick
1 19.                      x-Josh
1 19.                      x-Oliver
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0      Winner
2 21212121212121212121     Loser

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