Measuring the Cooks with Rasch: Masterchef Australia, 2019, (Series 11)

Masterchef 2019 Cook Cumulative Measures
Winsteps Winsteps Table 45 Plot: Cumulative person measures after each cooking task

 

MEASURE TASK - MAP - COOK July 23
           HARD|MORE
               |  1 Larissa Takchi       2 Tessa Boersma
   60          +
               |S 12 Steph De Sousa      13+ Abbey Rose         3 Simon Toohey         9 Tati Carlin
               |  4 Tim Bone (15)        6 Anushka Zargaryan    8 Derek Lau
               |  11 Sandeep Pandit      5 Nicole Scott         7 Christina Laker
               |  10 Ben Trobbiani
               |M
               |  13 Walleed Rasheed     14 Joe Ahern           18 Blake Werner
   50          +  16 Kyle Lyons
            X M|  19 Jess Hall           20 Mandy Hall
               |
               |S 22 Yossra Abouelfadl   23 Dee Williams
               |
               |
   40          +  17 Leah Milburn-Clark
               |T
               |  21 Monica Mignone      24 Huda Al-Sultan
               |
               |
               |
               |
   30          +
           EASY|LESS

The cooks' abilities are shown in the Wright Person-Item map: Winsteps Table 16.3 based on tasks since the second-chance challenge.


COOK July 23 STATISTICS:  MEASURE ORDER
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ENTRY   TOTAL  TOTAL           MODEL|   INFIT  |  OUTFIT  |EXACT MATCH|                      |
|NUMBER  SCORE  COUNT  MEASURE  S.E. |MNSQ  ZSTD|MNSQ  ZSTD| OBS%  EXP%| COOK July 23         |
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+----------------------|
|     2   99.7   46.3    61.8     1.5| .92  -.35| .79 -1.01| 49.4  39.1| 2 Tessa Boersma      |
|     1  101.0   44.3    60.8     1.5|1.27  1.36|1.73  2.87| 26.3  36.1| 1 Larissa Takchi     |
|    13   54.4   22.5    58.8     2.3|1.16   .61|1.02   .17| 32.7  44.4| 13+ Abbey Rose       |
|     9   82.7   33.2    58.4     1.8| .91  -.29| .73 -1.05| 48.4  41.6| 9 Tati Carlin        |
|    12   63.0   25.5    58.3     2.2| .75  -.83| .80  -.55| 52.7  44.1| 12 Steph De Sousa    |
|     3  126.2   51.8    58.2     1.4|1.04   .31|1.11   .63| 23.9  37.1| 3 Simon Toohey       |
|     8   85.9   32.7    57.1     1.9|1.48  1.77|1.19   .74| 45.2  44.2| 8 Derek Lau          |
|     6  103.5   38.0    56.4     1.7|1.03   .22| .83  -.62| 44.2  46.0| 6 Anushka Zargaryan  |
|     4  103.5   37.6    56.4     1.6| .54 -2.37| .66 -1.44| 53.0  44.4| 4 Tim Bone (15)      |
|    11   58.0   20.8    55.9     2.6|1.42  1.06|1.33   .85| 56.5  57.3| 11 Sandeep Pandit    |
|     5  107.3   40.7    55.6     1.8| .92  -.25| .98  -.01| 44.8  49.2| 5 Nicole Scott       |
|     7  104.0   38.0    55.1     1.8|1.23   .90|1.18   .72| 51.2  49.2| 7 Christina Laker    |
|    10   87.7   30.2    54.5     2.0| .62 -1.39| .61 -1.23| 59.2  51.5| 10 Ben Trobbiani     |
|    18   38.0   13.6    50.8     3.9| .63  -.70| .45  -.81| 67.1  65.2| 18 Blake Werner      |
|    15   55.7   18.3    50.8     2.9|1.16   .52|1.22   .55| 49.8  60.8| 14 Joe Ahern         |
|    14   58.5   20.3    50.7     3.2| .56 -1.05| .49 -1.01| 64.0  64.6| 13 Walleed Rasheed   |<- most consistent
|    16   53.3   17.7    49.6     3.1| .93  -.03|1.03   .25| 64.6  61.8| 16 Kyle Lyons        |
|    20   30.1   11.4    47.9     4.4| .66  -.74| .98   .24| 62.3  61.4| 20 Mandy Hall        |
|    19   38.3   13.2    47.8     4.2|1.23   .63|2.24  1.45| 61.4  62.8| 19 Jess Hall         |
|    23   23.0    8.0    44.8     5.3|1.40   .87|6.16  2.57| 62.5  61.8| 23 Dee Williams      |<- most inconsistent
|    22   24.2    9.1    44.3     5.7| .79  -.34| .66  -.03| 56.0  65.7| 22 Yossra Abouelfadl |
|    17   52.2   14.6    40.6     4.6| .80  -.24| .59  -.10| 70.1  68.0| 17 Leah Milburn-Clark|
|    24   19.0    6.0    38.0     7.8|2.35  1.59| .97   .45| 66.7  68.5| 24 Huda Al-Sultan    |
|    21   29.0    9.3    37.8     6.5| .77  -.20| .58   .09| 56.9  70.4| 21 Monica Mignone    |
|------------------------------------+----------+----------+-----------+----------------------|
| MEAN    66.6   25.1    52.1     3.2|1.02    .0|1.18    .2| 52.9  54.0|                      |
| P.SD    31.5   13.4     6.9     1.7| .39   1.0|1.11   1.1| 12.0  10.9|                      |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Masterchef Australia is a TV series on Australian TV, Network 10, tenplay.com.au. Series 11 started on April 29, 2019 and ended July 23, 2019. An analysis of Masterchef Australia 2018 is here.

Each cook is a row in the data matrix. Each episode, or part of an episode, is a column (item, task) in the data matrix. The first two episodes are for qualification and are summarized in the "1-AU" column, the first "cooking" column (item, task) in the data matrix. In the first episode, 18 home-cooks cooked dishes good enough for immediate qualification, scored "1" here. In the second episode 6 more are added, 5 are scored scored "3". 1 is scored "2" because she wasapplauded by the judges.

In most subsequent episodes, the winner or winning group of cooks are scored "1", the losers are scored "3", and the middle group are scored "2". The judges often make finer gradations in their comments on the dishes, and these are shown by additional scored levels. Since the scoring varies across episodes, the Partial Credit Model, ISGROUPS=0, is used. For details of each episode, please see Wikipedia: MasterChef Australia (series 11).

The columns (items) are labeled with codes such as "2-IT". "2" indicates the week number. "IT" indicates the type of competition. They are Pre = Prior, AU=Auditions, IT=Invention Test (Free Cook), MB=Mystery Box, PT=Pressure Test, elimination based on individual performance, IT=Invention Test, cooking for oneself, IQ=Immunity Qualifier, IC=Immunity Challenge, TC=Team Challenge, TE=Elimination based on Team performance, 2C=Second Chance, Now = best estimate of current ability, Wins=Probability of winning. "i" indicates the cook used an Immunity pin to bypass a Pressure Test. "-" indicates the cook is given a Bye for this event.

At the end of "Pressure Test" episodes, the losing cook is eliminated from the competition. In "Team Challenge" episodes, the contestants are divided into two or more teams with winning and losing teams. In team events (TC, 5-IT), the event is weighted inversely by the number of members of each team. In "Immunity" episodes, the winning cook competes against a professional Guest Chef. If the cook wins, the cook is awarded an "Immunity" pin (i), which can be used to escape from a future "Elimination" episode. The Guest Chefs differ for each challenge, but are conceptualized to have the same ability and so are identified as a 25th contestant in the data matrix.

The cooks are listed by name. The number immediately preceding each name is their order of elimination, counting backwards. Huda was the first cook eliminated and so is numbered 24. The overall winner will be numbered 1. In addition to a row for each of the 24 contestants and one for the Guest Chefs, there are two additional rows. These are used for hypothetical "Minimum" (who is worse than anyone) and "Maximum" (who is better than anyone) chefs. These are anchored at 0 and 100 to establish a constant frame-of-reference across the Masterchef episodes.

In addition to a column for each cooking task, there are three additional columns. The first data column, "Pre", is a Bayesian item containing ratings for the contestants (all the same), the Guest Chef, Maximum and Minimum. This gives us reasonable estimates to launch the process. The last item column, "Now", is also Bayesian. This gives the current best estimate for each active cook in the anchored-frame of reference. It is similar to "Pre", but inactive contestants are omitted. This column models the fact that contestants are changing their abilities. Some are gaining skills from the experience. Others are wearying of it and want to leave. The very last column, "Wins", is weighted zero, so that it does not influence any of the contestant estimates. This is used to estimate the probability for each contestant winning based on the current difficulty of winning the competition. This difficulty is such that the sum of the probabilities for the active contestants of succeeding on this "item" is 1.0. The probabilities are reported in the XFILE= as (1-RESIDUAL)*100 for this item. This is the Winning Probability Percent in the Table above.

After each episode, the cooks' performances are scored based on the judges opinions and entered into an Excel spreadsheet, available here. This is then converted into the Winsteps control and data file shown below and here by means of the Winsteps Excel/RSSST menu. USCALE=-10 and other control instructions have been added to reverse and rescale the measures, because lower score indicates higher ability.


&INST
Title= "Masterchef-2019.xls"
; Excel file created or last modified: 7/23/2019 9:58:42 PM
; Sheet1
;     Excel Cases processed = 27
; Excel Variables processed = 100
ITEM1 = 1 ; Starting column of item responses
NI = 94 ; Number of items
NAME1 = 96 ; Starting column for person label in data record
NAMLEN = 22 ; Length of person label
XWIDE = 1 ; Matches the widest data value observed

; extra control variables
ISGROUPS = 0 ; Partial Credit model: in case items have different rating scales
IWEIGHT = 6W4 ; for "Win" and team events
USCALE = -10 ; low score = high ability, rescaled for 0-100 = 10 logits
UDECIMALS = 1
PAFILE=*
25 75   ; ANCHOR GUEST CHEF AT 75
26 0    ; anchor minimum performance at 0
27 100  ; anchor maximum performance at 100
*
; IDELETE=2-48 ; everything before the second chance
PDELETE = 27 ; DELETE maximum
CONVERGE=B
LCONV=.001
RCONV=.1
FREQ = HARD ; for the Wright Person-Item Map
LESS = MORE
MORE = LESS
RARE = EASY
TITLE = Masterchef 2019 July 23 Final Results
PERSON = COOK July 23
ITEM = TASK
LINELENGTH = 120
TFILE=*
; PSELECT={A-Z}
IDELETE=+1
PDELETE=25-27
MAXPAG=60
16.3
IDELETE=
MAXPAG=100
17.1
*

CODES = " .1234567Xi" ; matches the data
TOTALSCORE = Yes ; Include extreme responses in reported scores
; Person Label variables: columns in label: columns in line
@Contestant = 1E21 ; $C96W21
&END ; Item labels follow: columns in label
0Pre ; Item 1 : 1-1
1-AU ; Item 2 : 2-2
1-IT ; Item 3 : 3-3
1-CS ; Item 4 : 4-4
2-MB ; Item 5 : 5-5
2-ME ; Item 6 : 6-6
2-PT ; Item 7 : 7-7
2-IC1 ; Item 8 : 8-8
2-ICG ; Item 9 : 9-9
2-TC 1/11 ; Item 10 : 10-10
2-PT1 ; Item 11 : 11-11
2-PT2 ; Item 12 : 12-12
3-MB ; Item 13 : 13-13
3-TC 1/5 ; Item 14 : 14-14
3-PT ; Item 15 : 15-15
3-IC1 ; Item 16 : 16-16
3-IC2 ; Item 17 : 17-17
3-TC 1/10 ; Item 18 : 18-18
3-TE1 ; Item 19 : 19-19
3-TE2 ; Item 20 : 20-20
4-MB ; Item 21 : 21-21
4-IT ; Item 22 : 22-22
4-PT ; Item 23 : 23-23
4-IC1 ; Item 24 : 24-24
4-IC2 ; Item 25 : 25-25
4-TC 1/6 ; Item 26 : 26-26
4-TE1 ; Item 27 : 27-27
4-TE2 ; Item 28 : 28-28
5-MB ; Item 29 : 29-29
5-IT ; Item 30 : 30-30
5-PT ; Item 31 : 31-31
5-IC1 ; Item 32 : 32-32
5-IC2 ; Item 33 : 33-33
5-TC 1/8 ; Item 34 : 34-34
5-TE1 ; Item 35 : 35-35
5-TE2 ; Item 36 : 36-36
6-MB ; Item 37 : 37-37
6-IT 1/2 ; Item 38 : 38-38
6-PT ; Item 39 : 39-39
6-IC1 ; Item 40 : 40-40
6-IC2 ; Item 41 : 41-41
6-TC 1/7 ; Item 42 : 42-42
6-TE1 ; Item 43 : 43-43
6-TE2 ; Item 44 : 44-44
7-MB ; Item 45 : 45-45
7-IT ; Item 46 : 46-46
7-PT ; Item 47 : 47-47
7-2C ; Item 48 : 48-48
7-IC1 ; Item 49 : 49-49
7-IC2 ; Item 50 : 50-50
7-TC 1/6 ; Item 51 : 51-51
7-TE1 ; Item 52 : 52-52
7-TE2 ; Item 53 : 53-53
8-MB ; Item 54 : 54-54
8-IT ; Item 55 : 55-55
8-PT ; Item 56 : 56-56
8-IC1 ; Item 57 : 57-57
8-IC2 ; Item 58 : 58-58
8-TC 1/2 ; Item 59 : 59-59
8-TE ; Item 60 : 60-60
9-MB ; Item 61 : 61-61
9-IT ; Item 62 : 62-62
9-IN ; Item 63 : 63-63
9-IC1 ; Item 64 : 64-64
9-IC2 ; Item 65 : 65-65
9-TC 1/5 ; Item 66 : 66-66
9-TE ; Item 67 : 67-67
10-MB ; Item 68 : 68-68
10-IT ; Item 69 : 69-69
10-PT ; Item 70 : 70-70
10-IC1 ; Item 71 : 71-71
10-IC2 ; Item 72 : 72-72
10-TC 1/2 ; Item 73 : 73-73
10-TE ; Item 74 : 74-74
11-MB ; Item 75 : 75-75
11-IT ; Item 76 : 76-76
11-TC ; Item 77 : 77-77
11-IC1 ; Item 78 : 78-78
11-IC2 ; Item 79 : 79-79
11-TC 1/3 ; Item 80 : 80-80
11-TE ; Item 81 : 81-81
12-MB ; Item 82 : 82-82
12-IT ; Item 83 : 83-83
12-PT ; Item 84 : 84-84
12-AC ; Item 85 : 85-85
12-PC ; Item 86 : 86-86
12-Q1 ; Item 87 : 87-87
12-Q2 ; Item 88 : 88-88
12-Q3 ; Item 89 : 89-89
12-MC 1/4 ; Item 90 : 90-90
12-SF ; Item 91 : 91-91
12-FE ; Item 92 : 92-92
12-FM ; Item 93 : 93-93
12-FD ; Item 94 : 94-94
END NAMES
333 43   22 343  1  1. 4 2  52 4 21 331  1  32    2321. 4 2 422  2121 112 244. 2 1. 11   13111 1 Larissa Takchi
313 32 112i 31 2 1  33   2  56   1  22   21 21  111  32   3.441121 32   4221.121 41 321  11122 2 Tessa Boersma
313 43   21 21 121  45   31 55   2211. 4 23112  3 21 431  3241.2 2221 3 31425. 2122 35 1 12233 3 Simon Toohey
31213.   1  32   1  44   2  54   1  334        1  1  41 12. 454  1 331  43333. 1 34123 2114    4 Tim Bone (15)
313 441  1  23   21 43   1  54   1  21 5 231332   1  42   1 1..2 1 32   1 45221. 551242 2      5 Nicole Scott
313 23   22 22   1  44   31 371  1  31 121  32    22 41 2 31356  24332  2 1..3 1 632           6 Anushka Zargaryan
333 43   23132   21 44   31 26   21 32   22 331   23142   1 453  1 31 4 1 4414 22              7 Christina Laker
313 42 1322 31 4 21 461  1  1. 3 1  31 3 1  22    1  432  31237  1 1. 2 34                     8 Derek Lau
313 43   1  32   22141 1232141 2 1  22   1  32    21 42   33425  23333                         9 Tati Carlin
313 43   1  32   1  43   33254   223333  23231  2 1  41 3 2 424  25                            10 Ben Trobbiani
333 43   22 33   1  24   2  52 111  32   1  32    .. 42   34                                   11 Sandeep Pandit
313 23   1  31 3 22132 3 2  53   231332  21 32    1  233                                       12 Steph De Sousa
313 1X 2 1  241  22132 2 1  56   1  21 2 1  31  4 233                                          13+ Abbey Rose
313 43   23133   21 44   1  55   21 32   1  3333                                               13 Walleed Rasheed
312443   1  33   1  43   2  35   24232   233   3                                               14 Joe Ahern
313 41 3 23133   1  44   1  572  224           2                                               16 Kyle Lyons
333 43   1  342  1  462  1  573                3                                               17 Leah Milburn-Clark
313 43   1  31 4 21 43   323                   3                                               18 Blake Werner
313 43   1  1. 4 222463                        2                                               19 Jess Hall
312243   1  343  223                           3                                               20 Mandy Hall
333 43   22 344                                3                                               21 Monica Mignone
313 442  232                                   2                                               22 Yossra Abouelfadl
3213443                                        3                                               23 Dee Williams
313 45                                         3                                               24 Huda Al-Sultan
2       2       1       1       2       1        2       1      1      2                 1     Guest Chef at 75
4                                                                                        2     Minimum at 0
1                                                                                              Maximum at 100

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